禽流感疫情影响下家禽产业链价格波动及其动态关系研究

我国是禽流感多发地区,重大禽流感疫情对家禽产业的市场供求有着重大的影响。本文基于1998年1月-2014年12月肉鸡产业链以及蛋鸡产业链的月度价格数据,以我国内地已发生的三次重大禽流感疫情为背景,运用误差修正模型分析了历次禽流感疫情冲击对家禽产业链各产品价格的影响程度,并基于有向无环图(DAG)技术以及历史分解方法分析了禽流感疫情发生后各个产品价格之间的动态关系。研究表明:肉雏鸡价格对禽流感疫情最为敏感,跌幅最高可达27%,蛋雏鸡次之;在禽类之间传播的禽流感疫情对家禽产业具有短期冲击效应,当发生人感染禽流感疫情时,家禽产业至少需要13个月恢复至原有价格水平;疫情发生后,活鸡、肉雏鸡价格下降分别对禽肉和鸡苗价格下跌的贡献程度最大,而鸡肉和鸡蛋价格的率先上涨推动了禽肉市场的恢复。在此基础上提出了适时启动鸡苗补贴、推广冷鲜鸡肉消费习惯、加强银保合作等应对禽流感疫情风险的政策建议。

The price fluctuation and its dynamic relations of the poultry industry chain under the influence of avian influenza

China is an avian influenza-prone region, where major bird flu epidemics affect greatly the market supply and demand of poultry products. Based on the monthly price data of broilers and laying hens from January 1998 to December 2014, and applying the error correction model, this paper explored the impacts of previous avian influenza outbreaks on the prices along the poultry industry chain of three major avian influenza outbreaks in China, and analyzed the dynamic relationships among the prices of each product after the outbreaks of avian influenza based on the technology of directed acyclic graphs (DAG) and the historical decomposition method. Results show that the price of broiler chickens is the most sensitive to avian influenza epidemic with the highest price drop of 27%, followed by egg-laying chickens. The avian influenza epidemic has a short-term impact on poultry industry. And when human being gets infected by avian influenza, it takes at least 13 months for price to return to the original level for poultry industry. After the outbreaks of the epidemic, the decrease in the prices of live chickens and broiler chickens contribute most to the price drop in poultry and chicken respectively. While the leading increase in chicken and egg prices drives the recovery of the poultry market. Accordingly, to improve the price risk management for the poultry industry, this paper suggests to form and implement subsidy policies for baby chicks in the due time, to promote the consumption of frozen chicken, and to strengthen the cooperation between banks and insurance companies.