坡面泥石流暴发的自组织临界特性及其预测预报

坡面泥石流是山区常见的一种自然灾害。以重庆市北碚区为例,分析了坡面泥石流暴发的松散堆积物自组织临界特性,以及地貌和降雨量临界特性。从自组织临界的观点来看,坡面泥石流形成区各个子系统之间存在着非线性作用,使系统自然地朝着临界状态演化,在暴雨激发下,最终导致坡面泥石流的暴发。泥石流规模和频率存在着幂律关系,这是泥石流自组织临界状态的行为标志,并可对坡面泥石流的活动规律进行预测、预报。

Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast

Slope debris flow is a natural hazard constantly observed in the mountain area. Taking the Beibei of Chongqing City as an example,the paper analyzes the self-organization criticality of solid loose materials,and the criticality of geomorphology and rainfall while slope debris flow occurs.From viewpoint of self-organization(criticality),non-linear interaction exists between different subsystems in the formation of slope debris flow,and causes the system to develop naturally to a state of self-organization criticality.Under triggering by storm,slope debris flow occurs eventually.There exists a power correlation between its magnitude and frequency,which is a behavioral sign of debris flow as self-organization.In addition,occurrence law of slope debris flow can be predicted and forecasted through the power correlation.