| 灰色系统理论对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地数量预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 智长贵,徐济德,钟华友.灰色系统理论对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地数量预测分析[J].林业资源管理,2008(2):75-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 智长贵 徐济德 钟华友 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国家林业局调查规划设计院,北京,100714
2. 国家林业局森林资源管理司,北京,100714 |
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| 摘 要： | 以我国"十五"期间征占用林地数量为基础,运用灰色系统预测模型对我国"十一五"期间征占用林地趋势进行预测,并对模型精度进行了分析和检验。建立的GM(1,1)模型经精度检验(C=0.50,P=1.00)判为合格,预测的"十一五"期间林地征占用数据,可作为编制我国"十一五"期间林地定额的参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 林地定额 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-6622(2008)02-0075-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008年1月18日 |
Prediction and Analysis of Requisitioned and Occupied Forest Land during China's "11th Five-Year Plan" Period Using Grey System Theory |
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| ZHI Changgui,XU Jide,ZHONG Huayou.Prediction and Analysis of Requisitioned and Occupied Forest Land during China's "11th Five-Year Plan" Period Using Grey System Theory[J].Forest Resources Management,2008(2):75-77. |
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| Authors: | ZHI Changgui XU Jide ZHONG Huayou |
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| Abstract: | Based on the area of requisitioned and occupied forest land during China's"10th Five-Year Plan"period,a grey forecasting model of GM(1,1)was used to forecast the trend of requisitioned and occupied woodland during China's"11th Five-Year Plan"period,and the model precision was analyzed.The results showed that GM(1,1)model was effective(C = 0.50 P = 1.00).The predictive value can be used as one of the references for woodland ration during China's"11th Five-Year Plan"period. |
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| Keywords: | grey system theory GM(1 1)model woodland ration |
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