基于BP神经网络的三峡库区重庆段水资源安全评价

三峡库区水资源安全关系到库区的生态安全,对库区水资源安全利用进行评价,找出问题较为严重的区域,明确其限制因子,从而为库区水资源可持续发展和水资源安全提供科学的决策依据。结合2000—2014年三峡库区水资源安全数据,选取BP神经网络构建水资源安全利用评价模型,结合ARIMA模型进行指标预测,分析了三峡库区重庆段水资源安全利用的时空差异。研究表明:(1)三峡库区重庆段2014年水资源安全利用总体分布在较不安全到较安全之间,渝中区和大渡口区为较不安全等级,沙坪坝区等7个区县为基本安全,其他区县为较安全等级;在子系统的评价中,主城区的社会安全与供需安全等级均为最低,为极不安全和较不安全等级。(2)2000—2014年水资源安全利用等级主要受生态安全因子制约,供需安全因子次之;2015—2020年水资源安全利用等级主要受供需安全因子限制,生态安全因子次之。2000—2020年水资源安全利用等级总体呈上升趋势。

Study on Water Resources Security Evaluation of Chongqing Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on BP Neural Network

The safety of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is largely related to the ecological security of the reservoir area.The evaluation on the security utilization of water resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area facilitates to find out the areas with serious security problems and in turn illustrate the limiting factors that affect the safe use of water resources aiming at providing a scientific basis for the sustainable development and safe utilization of water resources.The water security data of the Three Gorges Reservoir area in 2000-2014 By were chosen,the BP neural network was employed to construct an evaluation mode of safe utilization of water resources.Then,index prediction in combination with an ARIMA model was performed to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of security utilization of water resources in Chongqing section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.(1) In general,the security utilization of water resources in 2014 was situated in a range from less secure to safer.Specially,Yuzhong and Dadukou Districts were the less safe areas;Shapingba and Jiangbei Districts were the basically safe areas;other districts were the safe areas.With the respect to the evaluated subsystem,the security for both the society and the supply-demand loop in the main urban area were the lowest level.Their security levels were extremely unsafe and unsafe,respectively.(2) During the period from 2000 to 2014,the security level of water resources utilization was mainly constraint from the ecological security factors and successively from the safety factors of supply-demand loop;during the period from 2015 to 2020,the security level of water resources utilization was mainly restricted by the safety factors of supplydemand loop,and followed by the ecological security factors.During the period from 2000 to 2020,the utilization level of water resources security presented the general uptrend.