武功地区气候变化特征及趋势预测

基于1955—2012年武功地区气温与降水量逐日观测数据,运用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验与洛伦兹曲线理论分析了该地区年均气温和降水量地变化趋势及年内均匀性评价,并借助R/S分析对该地区气候发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:武功地区58年来年均气温呈明显上升趋势,而年降水量呈下降趋势;气温在1990年发生气温升高突变,1955—1984年为丰水期,1985—2002年转入枯水期,2002年之后逐渐转为丰水期;年内降水分布不均匀性逐渐增强,降水量较小的月份所占比例较大,且基尼系数与洛伦兹不对称系数的年代际变幅不大,基本趋于不变;目前气温升高趋势将不再持续,未来可能降低,并且年降水量减少趋势也不再持续,未来可能开始增加。

Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area

Based on the daily observation data of temperature and precipitation from 1955 to 2012 in Wugong area,the cumulative departure and Mann-Kendall test and Lorenz curve method were applied to analyze the temperature and annual precipitation variation characteristics and years uniformity evaluation,the R/S method was applied to forecast the development trend of climate in this region.The results showed that the temperature had an increasing trend over the past 58 years in Wugong area,and the annual precipitation decreased;the temperature had a rising mutation in 1990,the region was wet in 1955-1984,and it turned to dry season in 1985-2002,and it gradually turned into the wet season after 2002;the uneven of annual precipitation distribution was gradually strengthen,the months of less precipitation had a larger percentage,and the decadal amplitude of the Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient was little,which was essentially unchanged;the rising tendency of temperature will no longer last,it may reduce in the future,the decreasing tendency of precipitation will also no longer last,it may increase in the future.