气候变化对挠力河流域水文情势驱动影响的分析

为了达到挠力河流域以及整个三江平原水资源综合利用、管理和农业可持续发展的目的,基于1961—2013年挠力河流域宝清与菜咀子站气象、水文监测资料,采用统计相关和趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,分析研究了流域中游区段降水、气温及径流变化特征,特别是突变前后特征变化。结果表明:近53年气温呈明显的升温趋势,而降水和径流呈稍降趋势,基本变化不大。文中揭示出挠力河流域气温和降水突变时间基本发生在1987年。从1987年后开始由低温多雨时段转为高温少雨时段。近53年宝清降水与径流相关系数为0.85,尤其突变前时段相关系数高达0.96,在降水距平百分率10%和10%的年份对应径流多和少正确率达0.93;突变后略有下降,表明降水多少几乎完全驱动了挠力河中上游径流大小的变化,并分析了温度变化是加速或减弱降水对径流的驱动影响。另外还分析了宝清降水对挠力河中下游径流的驱动作用,表现在突变前降水对径流的驱动作用不大,而主要是依靠下垫面蓄水和水利工程对径流变化起着重要的驱动作用,突变后宝清的降水对下游的驱动作用在增加。

Analysis of Driving Influence of Climate Change on the Hydrological Situation in Naoli River Basin

In order to achieve the purpose of the water resource use and agricultural development of the Naoli river valley and the whole sanjiang plain,based on the monitoring data from two meteorological and hydrological stations in Baoqing and Caizuizi of Naoli River Bsin from 1961 to 2013 we adopted the statistical correlation and trend calculation,Mann-Kendall method to analyze the variation characteristics of the basin precipitation,temperature and runoff the in middle section,characteristics the change,especially before and after the mutation.The results showed that the temperature was significant warming trend,the precipitation and runoff were slightly down trend,which had not much changed in nearly 53 years.Mutations of the temperature and precipitation of Naoli River valley occurred in 1987.Since 1987,the low temperature and rainy period shifted to high temperature and less rain period.The correlation coefficient was 0.85 between the precipitation and runoff in Baoqing nearly 53 years,correlation coefficient was as high as 0.96 in mutation time.The corresponding in runoff year more and less accuracy was 0.93 in the year with the precipitation anomaly percentage ＞10％ and ＜10％.The correlation coefficient declined slightly in after mutation,showing that almost entirely the size of the middle and upper reaches of Naoli river runoff changes were driven by precipitation.The influence of temperature change accelerated or reduced effect of precipitation on runoff.Precipitation for role of driving force in runoff in Baoqing in the middle and lower reaches of Naoli river was also analyzed,showing that driving effect of precipitation in before time of the mutations on runoff was not significant,but mainly relied on that the underlying surface water storage and water conservancy projects played the important role in driving runoff changes.After mutations,driver effect of precipitation in Baoqing rose in lower reaches.