和田河流域土地生态系统服务价值变化及敏感性研究

为了探究和田河流域综合治理项目的生态效益,基于和田河流域1990年、2000年、2010年的遥感解译数据,并选取符合干旱区特点的Constanza价值系数,依据研究区的实际情况进行修正,分析了1990—2010年的土地类型面积变化、生态服务价值变化,探讨了服务价值对系数变动的敏感性。结果表明:(1)1990—2010年林地面积增加29.33%,变化幅度最大;草地、耕地、湿地的面积分别减少7.42%,17.45%,7.1%,变化幅度相对较小;河湖与荒漠面积的减少幅度均在1%以下;(2)和田河流域生态系统服务总价值在1990年、2000年、2010年分别为380.62亿元、341.82亿元、350.83亿元,2000年比1990年减少了10.19%,2010年比1990年减少了7.83%;(3)经敏感性分析验证,估算结果对生态服务价值系数的敏感性指数均在0.35以下,所选价值系数合理,研究结果可信。

Study on the Service Value of Land Ecosystem and Sensitivity in Hotan River Basin

In order to explore the ecological benefits of comprehensive reclamation in Hotan river basin,the remote sensing data in 1990,2000 and 2010 were collected.Then,the Constanza value coefficient,which was conformed to the characteristics of arid region,was amended according to the practical situation of study area.At last,the change of land area and ecological service value from 1990 to 2000 were analyzed,and the sensibility of service value to fluctuating of coefficient was discussed.The results are as follows.(1) From 1990 to 2010,the changes in the area of forest was biggest,and the area of forest increased by 29.33％;the changes of the areas of grassland,cultivated land,wetland were smaller relatively,and areas of grassland,cultivated land,wetland decreased by 7.42 ％,17.45 ％,7.1 ％,respectively;what's more,the decrease ranges of river lake and desert area were all below 1％.(2) The values of ecosystem service were 38.062 billion yuan,34.182 billion yuan,35.083 billion yuan in 1990,2000,2010,respectively;the value of ecosystem service in 2000 was decreased by 7.83％ compared to that in 1990,it was decreased 7.83％ in 2010 compared to that in 1990.(3) The sensibility of estimated results to ecological service value coefficients was all under 0.35 based on the sensitivity analysis,thus the value coefficients were reasonable and the results were reliable.