贵州省耕地质量时空格局及变化趋势分析

为深化对贵州省耕地质量空间格局及变化趋势的认识，合理制定省级耕地质量保护制度及决策提供依据，基于1989年、1995年、2000年3期贵州省土地利用规划条件下的耕地数据，定量分析了耕地质量时空变化规律及发展趋势，组合耕地模糊优选模型与理想点法构建评价模型评价了各年的耕地质量，并运用CA-Markov模型和GIS空间分析技术模拟了贵州省2020年耕地空间分布状况。结果表明:（1）贵州省6类土地利用类型间均有相互转移，耕地转移为其他的土地利用类型中63.6%仍然为农业用地，如林地、草地，土地利用性质变化不大；（2）其他土地利用类型均有向耕地转移的趋势，转移的面积以耕地为主，且转移面积大于耕地转移出去的面积，耕地面积保有量在逐渐上升；（3）贵州省耕地所处环境在不断的优化中，优质耕地资源得到了有效保护和利用，优等地的面积有逐渐扩大的趋势；（4）预测得到的2020年贵州省耕地优等地、高等地、中等地、低等地的面积占总耕地面积的比例分别为46.9%，42.2%，10.8%，0.1%，其中优等地主要集中于水系较为发达和农业资源丰富的地区。

Analysis on the Distribution and Variation Trend of Cultivated Land Quality in Guizhou Province

In order to deepen the understanding of spatial pattern and variation trend of cultivated land quality in Guizhou Province and provide reference for the development of rational farmland quality protection system and decision-making,the cultivated land quality and its variation trend were analyzed based on the distribution of cultivated land in 1989,1995,2000.Fuzzy optimum model and ideal point method were combined to evaluate the quality of cultivated land in each year.CA-Markov model and spatial analysis tools were employed to predict the distribution of cultivated land in 2020.The findings suggest the followings.First,there is a mutual transfer between 6 types of land uses in Guizhou Province,63.6％ of the changed areas from cultivated land are still agricultural land,such as forest land,grassland,and the change of land use nature is not obvious.Second,other kinds of land uses have the tendency of transferring to cultivated land,most of the changed areas were transferred to cultivated land,and the amount of area was larger than the area transferred out of cultivated land,so,the quantity of cultivated land is increasing gradually.Third,the environment of cultivated land in Guizhou Province is continuously optimized and the high-quality cultivated land resources have been effectively protected and utilized,the area of the superior land level has the gradually expanding tendency.Fourth,the predicted cultivated land in 2020 indicts that the percentage of superior land level,higher land level,moderate land level and lower land level in the total cultivated land will be 46.9％,42.2％,10.8％,0.1％,respectively,most of the superior land levels will concentrate in areas where river systems are more developed and agriculture resources are rich.