| Abstract: | Models for forecasting outbreaks of harmful Microtines are discussed in terms of the three most important types of rodent damage to agriculture and forestry in the European part of EPPO region: problems to field crops by Microtus arvalis and related species, to horticulture and forestry by M. agrestis and some other species, and injury to the underground parts of various crops by Arvicola terrestris. Two models were developed in parallel but independently for M. arvalis, one in the USSR, the other in France; the former approach included M. socialis. A joint Scandinavian project resulted in models for M, agrestis and Clethrionomys glareolus: the outcome is exemplified by the former case and a few comments are given on other types of model development. The probable mechanism of climatic influence through the food chain on the population dynamics of Microtine rodents is discussed and it is concluded that climatic models are a useful tool in planning rodent control strategies. The role of the EPPO Working Party on Field Rodents as a coordinating body in the development of rodent forecasts is also reviewed. |
