柑橘矢尖蚧发生期预测回归方程研究

矢尖蚧是危害柑橘生产的重要害虫之一,搞好测报可以指导适时防治.笔者在重庆市北碚区柑橘园对矢尖蚧进行多年系统监测,结果表明,矢尖蚧在该地一年发生3代,世代重叠,第1代发生较为整齐,便于统一防治.因此,以2012年-2018年该虫发生前3个月的气象资料和矢尖蚧发生的田间历史数据为依据,应用DPS软件,分别采用简单法和多因子...

Predication regression equations for the occurrence period of the arrowhead scale, Unaspis yanonensis

The arrowhead scale(Unaspis yanonensis)is one of the important pests of citrus.Good forecasting can guide prevention and control of this pest in time.For many years,the author has carried out systematic monitoring of arrowhead scale in citrus gardens in Beibei district of Chongqing.The results showed that three overlapping generations occurred in this area every year.The first generation occurred more regularly,which benefits unified prevention.Therefore,based on the meteorological data of the three months prior to the occurrence of arrowhead scale from 2012 to 2018 and the field historical data,DPS software was applied to carry out stepwise regression by using simple and multi-factor interaction methods,respectively.The prediction regression equation of the first-generation occurrence period of arrowhead scale in spring was established.The total regression of the two equations reached the significant or extremely significant level.The regression equations established by using the two methods indicated that the first-generation peak was related to the meteorological data such as temperature,humidity,rain days and rainfall in the preceding three months.The data of 2019 were used for testing,and the results showed that the two regression equations were“relatively accurate”,both of which could accurately predict the occurrence peak of arrowhead scale in this area.