猕猴桃种植户应对气象灾害的行为及影响因素研究——以2018年陕西省冷冻灾害为例

气象灾害已成为造成农业歉收和农业生产波动的主要原因，为厘清农户灾害应对行为及影响因素，利用中国猕猴桃主产区陕西省关中地区两个典型县（周至县和眉县）的226份调查数据，对猕猴桃种植户灾害应对行为决策及行为强度进行测度与综合分析，并运用Double-hurdle模型进一步分析了农户行为决策及影响因素。结果表明：1）农户在灾害前后的行为存在差异，灾前主要采取树主干涂白包裹及果园熏烟等方式，灾后主要采用剪去受冻枝条及向树体喷洒营养液等方式。2）农户应灾强度总体较低，且存在县域差异。在12种应对措施中，190位种植户仅采取1~3种应对措施，占采取应对措施人群的85.43%，平均采取措施2.1种；周至县农户采取应对行为的农户比例较高，且行为强度高于眉县农户。3）农户应对行为受其内在禀赋特征及外在环境因素的共同影响，且影响方向有正有负。户主的文化程度、种植猕猴年限、参加技术培训的次数等变量正向影响农户的应对行为决策及强度；乡镇距离变量负向影响农户的应对行为决策及强度。政府应拓宽农户获取信息与知识的渠道，引导农户积极应对自然灾害，确保种植业收入稳定及持续发展。

Kiwifruit farmers' behavior and its' influencing factors of coping with meteorological disasters: A case study of Shaanxi freezing disaster in 2018

Meteorological disasters have become the main cause of agricultural harvest failures and fluctuations in agricultural production. To investigate farmers'' disaster response behaviors and influencing factors, we used data from 226 microscopic surveys conducted in two counties (Zhouzhi County and Mei County) in the Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province, China''s main kiwifruit production area. We comprehensively analyzed the kiwifruit farmers'' disaster response decision-making and behavior, and used Double-hurdle model to analyze the influencing factors. The results showed the following: 1) before and after the disaster, differences were noted in the farmers'' behaviors. Before the disaster, farmers painted the main trunks white and used smoke generation in the orchard. After the disaster, farmers cut off frozen branches and sprayed nutrient solution on the trees. 2) The disaster response intensities of the farmers were generally low and country specific differences were noted. Among the 12 kinds of response measures, 190 farmers only used 1-3 kinds, accounting for 85.43% of the farmers undertaking response measures, with an average of 2.1 kinds of measures. Zhouzhi County had a higher proportion of farmers who used response measures, and the behavior intensity was higher than that of farmers in Mei County. 3) Farmers'' coping behaviors were influenced by their inherent endowment characteristics and external environmental factors, and the direction of influence was both positive and negative. Variables such as the education level of household head, the number of years the household head had been planting kiwifruit, and the extent of technical training positively affected the farmers'' decision-making and behavior intensity. Variables such as the township distance negatively affected the decision-making and intensity of the farmers'' coping behaviors. The government should broaden the channels for farmers to obtain information and knowledge and guide them to actively respond to natural disasters. Responding to meteorological disasters is a necessary measure to ensure stable income and sustainable development of the planting industry.