比较二元逻辑回归和层次分析法评估罗马尼亚Dobrovat河盆地滑坡敏感性

A comparative analysis of binary logistic regression and analytical hierarchy process for landslide susceptibility assessment in the Dobrovat River Basin, Romania

A correct assessment of the landslide susceptibility component is extremely useful for the diminution of associated potential risks to local economic development, particularly in regard to land use planning and soil conservation. The purpose of the present study was to compare the usefulness of two methods, i.e., binary logistic regression (BLR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), for the assessment of landslide susceptibility over a 130-km² area in the Moldavian Plateau (eastern Romania) region, where landslides affect large areas and render them unsuitable for agriculture. A large scale inventory mapping of all types of landslides (covering 13.7% of the total area) was performed using orthophoto images, topographical maps, and field surveys. A geographic information system database was created, comprising the nine potential factors considered as most relevant for the landsliding process. Five factors (altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, surface lithology, and land use) were further selected for analysis through the application of a tolerance test and the stepwise filtering procedure of BLR. For each predictor, a corresponding raster layer was built and a dense grid of equally spaced points was generated, with an approximately equal number of points inside and outside the landslide area, in order to extract the values of the predictors from raster layers. Approximately half of the total number of points was used for model computation, while the other half was used for validation. Analytical hierarchy process was employed to derive factor weights, with several pair-wise comparison matrices being tested for this purpose. The class weights, on a scale of 0 to 1, were taken as normalized landslide densities. A comparison of results achieved through these two approaches showed that BLR was better suited for mapping landslide susceptibility, with 82.8% of the landslide area falling into the high and very high susceptibility classes. The susceptibility class separation using standard deviation was superior to either the equal interval or the natural break method. Results from the study area suggest that the statistical model achieved by BLR could be successfully extrapolated to the entire area of the Moldavian Plateau.