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太湖鲚鱼渔获量变化与主要鱼类渔获量间关系的多元分析
引用本文:刘恩生,许建新,程建新,曹萍. 太湖鲚鱼渔获量变化与主要鱼类渔获量间关系的多元分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2005, 33(9): 1657-1659
作者姓名:刘恩生  许建新  程建新  曹萍
作者单位:中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏,南京210008;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏,南京210008;安徽农业大学,安徽,合肥,230036;安徽农业大学,安徽,合肥,230036;江苏省太湖渔业管理委员会,江苏,苏州,215004
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程项目 , 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)
摘    要:根据太湖1973~2002年的鱼类渔获量统计资料,应用多元线性回归分析及通径分析等方法,研究了太湖鲚鱼渔获量变化与主要鱼类渔获量间的关系。建立了太湖鲚鱼和主要鱼类渔获量间的最优线性回归模型。通径分析表明:对鲚鱼渔获量变化影响最大的是鲤、鲫鱼,其次是鱼白鱼和鲢鳙鱼,其他鱼类对鲚鱼的变化影响不明显(P>0.05)。

关 键 词:太湖  鲚鱼  主要鱼类  渔获量  多元分析
文章编号:0517-6611(2005)09-1657-03
收稿时间:2005-07-06
修稿时间:2005-07-06

Multianalysis between Catches of Lake Anchovy and Catches of Main Fishes in Lake Taihu
Liu EnSheng;Xu JianXin;Cheng JianXin;Cao Ping. Multianalysis between Catches of Lake Anchovy and Catches of Main Fishes in Lake Taihu[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2005, 33(9): 1657-1659
Authors:Liu EnSheng  Xu JianXin  Cheng JianXin  Cao Ping
Abstract:Based on the statistics of fish catches from 1973 to 2002 in Lake Taihu,with the methods of stepwise regression analysis and path analysis,the effects of catches of main fishes on the changes of catches of lake anchovy(Coilia ectenes taihuensis Yen et Lin) in Lake Taihu were studied.The results showed that: the optimization regression model of lake anchovy was y=8?124.815?6-4.126?6W_3+3.193?6W_4-2.174?6W_5,and the results of path analysis was: the catches of common carp(Cyprinus carpio Linnaeus) and crucian carp(Carassius auratus Linnaeus)had the maximal effects on catches of lake anchovy,and the catches of topmouth culter(Erythroculter ilishaeformis Bleeker and Erythroculte rmongolian Basilewsky) and catches of silver carp(Hypophthalmichthys molitrix Valenciennes) and bighead(Aristichthys nobilis Richardson) following that.The path coefficient respectively was P_(y,4)=(0.749?8)(P<0.000?1),P_(y,3)=-0.322?3(P=0.010?2),P_(y,5)=-0.253?3(P=0.045?3).
Keywords:Lako Taihu    Lake anchovy   Main fishes   Catches   Multianalysis
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