江西省历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测

在全球气温变暖的大背景下，基于江西省15个国家气象站点1961—2012年气象观测资料和政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）《第四次评估报告》提供的全球气候模式（GCM）资料，采用线性回归等气候学统计方法，分析了江西省历史气象特征，并对未来气候变化进行了预测。结果表明，1961—2012年全省、赣南、赣中、赣北降雨量上升趋势不显著，由南往北降雨量增加；1961—2012年多年年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温增温速率分别为0.16，0.12，0.22℃/10 a，区域间增温速率由南往北递增；预测江西省未来2020—2079年期间，在A₂，B₁排放情景下年均降雨量比历史基准期减少率分别为18.87%，10.13%；A₂，B₁排放情景下2020—2079年多年年均气温增温速率分别为0.41，0.22℃/10 a。

Analysis on Historical Weather and Prediction of Future Climate Change in Jiangxi Province

In the background of the global warming, we analyzed the historical meteorological characteristics and predicted future climate change in Jiangxi Province based on the data from 15 meteorological stations and the global climate model (GCM) data provided by the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Some climatology statistical methods such as linear regression were used in this paper. The results showed that from 1961 to 2012, that upward trend in rainfall was not obvious in Jiangxi Province including the south part, the middle part and the north part, and the rainfall increased gradually from south to north, it was also found out that, from 1961 to 2012, the annual average temperature, highest temperature, lowest temperature warming rate were 0.16, 0.12 and 0.22℃/10 a, the regional warming rate increased progressively from south to north. As predicted, in the future from 2020 to 2079, under the condition of A₂, B₁ emissions scenario, the decrement rates of annual average rainfall in Jiangxi Province will be 18.87% and 10.13%, respectively, compared to the historical reference period. From 2020 to 2079, under the condition of A₂, B₁ emissions scenario, the annual average temperature warming rate for many years in Jiangxi Province will be 0.41 and 0.22℃/10 a, respectively.