喀什市生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应及预测

[目的]通过研究喀什市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响,为土地科学利用管理决策提供参考。[方法]参考Costanza(1997)和谢高地(2008)等人的研究成果,结合喀什市的实际情况,采用生态系统服务价值计算公式和敏感度分析,通过研究喀什市1997—2010年生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应,并针对喀什市土地利用总体规划(2010—2020年)中土地利用类型的变化,对生态系统服务价值进行预测分析。[结果]按规划发展,1997—2020年,喀什市土地利用结构变化较大。土地利用程度呈加大趋势,生态系统服务总价值则逐年减少,其中耕地、水域的生态服务价值持续下降。敏感性指数分析表明,喀什市生态系统服务价值对生态服务价值系数是缺乏弹性的,研究结果可信。[结论]在喀什市土地利用总体规划实施过程中,应注重提升土地节约和集约利用水平,优化土地利用结构,保持生态系统的平衡和稳定。

Prediction of Ecosystem Services Value and Its Response to Land Use Change in Kashi City

[Objective] The aim of this study is to investigate the influences of land use change on ecosystem services value in Kashi City in order to provide scientific foundation for land use management.[Methods] We analyzed the effects of land use change on ecosystem services from 1997 to 2010 in Kashi City. The evaluation formula and sensitivity analysis was used, based on the ecosystem services value evaluation results obtained from previous studies. Ecosystem services value was predicted according to the change of land use type in the integrated land use planning in Kashi City(2010-2020).[Results] The land use structure in Kashi City changed greatly from 1997 to 2020 by planning. The land use degree showed a trend of increase, while the total ecosystem services value was decreasing year by year. Particularly, the service value of cultivated land and waters was decreasing contunuously. The sensitivity index showed that ecosystem services value was inelasticity and the result was reliable.[Conclusion] In practical implementation process of land use planning in Kashi City, more attention need to be paid on intensive land use and land use structure optimization, to maintain the balance and stability of the ecosystem.