热融湖塘对多年冻土发展演化趋势的影响

以发育于青藏高原腹地的红梁河热融湖塘为例，考虑未来50年气候增温2．6℃的情景，采用有限元数值模拟的方法预测2010年-2055年热融湖塘周围多年冻土的发展演化情况，结果表明：热融湖塘显著改变了周围土体的热状态，其对浅部土体影响较小，对深部土体的影响较大；热融湖塘对下部土体的竖向热影响强于对周围土体的侧向热侵蚀；多年冻土上限受外界气候环境的影响较大，而对于多年冻土下限，热融湖塘的影响居于主导地位。

Development and evolution of permafrost impacted by thermokarst lake

Taking the thermokarst lake by the Hongliang River, a typical thermokarst lake in the permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau, as a case, considering climate warming by 2.6~C in the future 50 years, trend analysis by numerical simulations is used to forecast the influence of thermakarst lake to permafrost nearby from 2010 to 2055. The results show that the predominant lateral heat effect of the thermokarst lake changes the thermal regimes of the soils in the lakebed and the lakeshore. The thermofrost lake itself has less impact on the subsurface temperature and the permafrost table in the surrounding soils,but has more impact on the deep soil.The thermokarst lake has more influence on the lakebed than the lakeshore.For permafrost table,the effect of climate warming is greater than that of thermafrost lake.For permafrost thickness,however, the effect of thermokarst lake is greater than that of climate warming.