Soil organic carbon stock in the Belgian Ardennes as affected by afforestation and deforestation from 1868 to 2005

The effects of historical land use changes on the global C cycle have mainly been studied by means of bookkeeping models. Here, we investigate with such models the impact of afforestation and deforestation on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. This approach, using field-based estimates of the response of SOC upon land use changes, is applied to a pilot area in the Belgian Ardennes over one and a half century (1868–2005). After a small initial decline during the 1868–1888 period due to deforestation for agricultural use, mean SOC stocks increased steadily up to 1990, due essentially to the conversion of deciduous to coniferous forests (in the study area, deciduous forests stored less SOC than coniferous) and the reclamation of heathland, which occurred both at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. Simulations showed that SOC stocks decreased recently (1990–2005) because of the slow down of sequestration in coniferous forests and a reversion of some of the coniferous plantations to deciduous forests. Over the entire period, afforestation resulted in a net sequestration of carbon (0.16 t C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the model was highly sensitive to its inputs (initial SOC stocks for each land use) both in term of predicted SOC stocks and rates of SOC stocks change. However, the sensitivity of the model was not large enough to revert the main trends of SOC changes observed. Compared to the amount of carbon sequestered in the biomass, the contribution of soils to the C sink in forest is small. Despite several sources of errors, a detailed reconstruction of land use changes combined with realistic SOC response curves upon land use conversion are required to be able to quantify the contribution of soils to terrestrial carbon fluxes.