黄土高原地区粮食生产潜力与粮食生产发展战略探讨

在运用DSSAT3模型模拟研究黄土坑原地区28个代表点小麦、玉米、谷子、大豆和马铃薯（或水稻）生产潜力的基础上，统计计算了14个生态类型区粮食作物单产潜力及其开发率结果表明，黄土高原地区可望在2020年前实现区域粮食自给，但其前提是需要投入巨大的物质和技术，加之该区广大山塬旱区粮食生产效益低，故该区粮食生产目标应定位于保证农业人口的粮食自给，不宜过分强调区域粮食自给和商品粮生产，粮食短缺部分应从国内外粮食市场寻求解决，以免造成生态环境恶化及经济的巨大浪费。

Developing strategy of grain crop production in Loess Plateau Region of China

Base on simulating productive potential results of wheat, maize, millet, soybean and potato (or rice) on 28 sites of the Loess Plateau Region of China with DSSAT3 model, potential yield per hm² and its development rate of grain crop in 14 ecological districts are calculated. The results show that the Loess Plateau Region could realize regional grain self-sufficiency before the year of 2020, but it needs huge nvestment of materials and techniques. Moreover, the economic effect of grain production on arid hilly and highland region of Loess Plateau is low, the goal of grain production on Loess Plateau should be to realize grain self-sufficiency of rural people, and it shouldn't emphasize commercialgrain production and regional grain self-sufficiency. In order to prevent eco-environment deterioration and low economic benefit, the grain shortage of the Loess Plateau Region should be applied from grain market of domestic and oversea.