技术预测研究现状与未来展望

技术预测不仅可以辅助科技战略决策者调控政策倾向、合理进行资源分配,还能够帮助有关研究人员及时追踪领域前沿,具有不容忽视的作用。然而随着科学技术的迅猛发展,各类信息也呈现出爆炸式的增长,技术预测活动面临着空前的挑战,如何有效使用大量的信息,提高技术预测的系统性以及科学性,成为亟待解决的问题。笔者首先对技术预测的概念进行辨析,进而梳理了国内外技术预测的发展历程,最后对部分国家技术预测项目的现状进行总结,在此基础上提出技术预测的未来研究展望。

Technology Forecasting: Status and Trends

Technology forecasting can not only help science and technology strategy decision makers regulate policy tendency and allocate resources, but also support researchers grasp research direction. Therefore, it plays an important role in the development of society. However, with the rapid development of technology and explosive growth of all kinds of information, technology forecasting activities are facing unprecedented challenges. How to use the information effectively and improve the systematic and scientific of technology forecasting approach has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first differentiates the concept of technology forecasting, and then summarizes the development process of it. Finally, after analyzing the current situation of technology forecasting projects in some countries, we put forward the development trends for the future technology forecasting.