新疆渭干河-库车河绿洲生态安全及演变趋势评价

以新疆渭干河—库车河绿洲（以下简称渭库绿洲）为研究靶区，从自然生态系统、经济生态系统、社会生态系统三个方面建立评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法定量评价1995—2011年17 a间渭库绿洲生态安全的相关指标及动态趋势，提取出社会经济发展水平因子、农业发展潜力因子、社会发展潜力因子、水资源因子，得到该流域的生态安全综合评价得分后进行初步探讨。结果表明:1995—2011年间渭库绿洲生态安全由不安全向安全过渡，1995—2001年处于不安全水平；2002—2003年处于临界安全水平；2004—2007年处于较安全水平；2008—2011年处于安全水平。运用BP神经网络预测2012—2016年内该绿洲的生态安全综合评价值分别为:1.477 1，1.519 3，1.604 4，1.657 3，1.692 9。表明在未来5 a内，渭库绿洲生态安全均处于安全状态且保持平稳发展。通过生态安全综合评价和预测以期为确保生态安全、协调区域经济发展与绿洲生态环境的保护提供参考。

Analysis on Ecological Security and Evolution Tendency of the Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis in Xinjiang

Taking Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis as the research site, basing on the theory of ecological security assessment, the system with 32 ecological safety evaluation indexes from natural ecosystems, ecomomic systems and social ecosystems was established, and by using the principal component analysis quantitative method in evaluating the trend of oasis ecological security in 17 years (from 1995 to 2011), economic development level factors, agricultural development potential factor, social development potential factor and water resources factor had been extracted. Results of the study have shown that the oasis developed from insecurity to security between 1995 and 2011. From 1995 to 2001, the system was in unsafety level, from 2002 to 2003, the system was criticality safe, from 2004 to 2007, the system was relatively safe, after 2008, the system was safety. The BP neural network was used to predict the oasis in the years from 2012 to 2016, the integrated evaluation of ecological security was 1.477 1, 1.519 3, 1.604 4, 1.657 3, 1.692 9, respectively. Ecological security evaluation and prediction can be used to ensure that oasis ecological security, coordinate regional economic development and ecological environment.