| 烟台市人口分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李清翠,张振华,谢恒星.烟台市人口分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(3):80-81. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李清翠 张振华 谢恒星 |
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| 作者单位： | 鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院, 山东, 烟台, 364025 |
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| 基金项目： | 烟台师范学院重点基金项目（043201）;人才引进基金（000444）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用时间序列分析模型和GM(1，1)模型拟合了烟台市人口数量，并对未来4年烟台市人口进行了预测.结果显示，二次滑动平均模型的相对误差波动范围为-0.731%～0.70%，均接近于0，预测精度最高.利用二次滑动平均模型预测未来4年烟台市人口分别为646.395万人、646.445万人、646.495万人和646.545万人，人口有逐年缓慢上升的趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析模型 GM(1 1)模型 拟合精度 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-3409（2007）03-0080-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-02 |
Population Analysis and Prediction of Yantai City |
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| LI Qing-cui,ZHANG Zhen-hua,XIE Heng-xing.Population Analysis and Prediction of Yantai City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(3):80-81. |
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| Authors: | LI Qing-cui ZHANG Zhen-hua XIE Heng-xing |
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| Institution: | College of Geography and Resources Management of Ludong University, Yantai, Shandong 264025, China |
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| Abstract: | Time series analysis model and GM(1,1) model were applied to fit population of Yantai city,and the population in future four years were predicted.Results showed that the relative error of two-step moving average model arranged from-0.731% to 0.702%,closing to 0,the predicting precision of this model was the highest one.The population in future four years predicted with the two-step moving average model were 6.46395 million,6.46445 million,6.46495 million and 6.46545 million,respectively,it would be ascending gradually year by year. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis model GM(1 1) model fitting precision predicting |
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