衡阳盆地土地利用/覆盖变化及模拟

以2003年、2013年两期森林资源二类调查小班数据以及2009年森林资源年度更新数据为基础,提取出衡阳盆地2003、2009、2013年三期土地利用/覆盖数据,在IDRISI17.0软件支持下,利用提取出的矢量数据进行空间叠加运算,得出土地利用/覆盖类型空间转移矩阵,分析了2003—2013年间衡阳盆地土地利用/覆盖类型的面积变化和结构变化情况。现状结果显示:2003—2013年,衡阳盆地内草地、林地和未利用地面积均有下降,耕地、建设用地、园地和水域面积均有所增加。基于CA-Markov模型模拟出2023年土地利用/覆盖情景。模拟出2023年衡阳盆地的土地利用/覆盖情景,并依据数量Kappa系数、位置Kappa系数和标准Kappa系数检验模拟精度。模拟结果显示:2013—2023年间,衡阳盆地内的林地将向草地、耕地和水域转化,耕地则更多的转化为园地和未利用地,部分林地、耕地和水域将继续向建设用地转换。

Land use/cover change and its simulation in Hengyang Basin

Based on the forest resources survey data in 2003, 2013 and the annual renewal forest resources data in 2009, the land use/cover data of Hengyang Basin in 2003, 2009 and 2013 were extracted. Supported by IDRISI 17.0, the vector data were used for spatial superposition operation, and the spatial transfer matrix of land use/cover types was obtained. The spatial transfer matrix of land use/cover types from 2003 to 2013 was analyzed. The area and structure changes of land use/cover types in Hengyang Basin during 2003 to 2013. The results show that from 2003 to 2013, the area of grassland, woodland and unused land in Hengyang Basin decreased, while the area of cultivated land, construction land, garden land and water area increased. Based on CA-Markov model, the land use/cover scenarios in 2023 was simulated. The simulated land use/cover scenarios in Hengyang Basin in 2023 are tested by the quantitative Kappa coefficient, the location Kappa coefficient and the standard Kappa coefficient. The simulation results show that from 2013 to 2023, forest land in Hengyang Basin will be transformed into grassland, cultivated land and water area, while cultivated land will be more transformed into garden land and unused land, and some forest land, cultivated land and water area will continue to be converted to construction land.