黑龙江森林火灾初次扑救派出人员数量模拟与分析

通过问卷调查收集了黑龙江省若干基层扑火指挥员对不同火场情景时的初次扑救派出人员数量 ,据此通过二次线性回归分别建立了根据火场情况 (火场面积、风级和到火场所需时间 )模拟森林火灾扑救初次派出人员数量的非线性模型 ,并对有关影响因素进行了分析。结果表明 ,(1)所建立的多元非线性模型能够较好地模拟派出人员数量 ;(2 )根据各地情况分别做出的模型模拟效果好 ,而以地区或省为单位进行模拟效果不好 ;(3)在火场面积小于 2hm2 时 ,多数人将风力看作是影响初次派出人员数量的首要因素 ,其次是到达火场所需时间 ,最后是火场面积 ;(4)随着指挥员工作时间的增长 ,模型中赋予到火场所需时间的权重增加 ,对到达火场所需时间越重视。

Simulation and Analysis of Number of Firefighters Dispatched in Initial Attack of Forest Fire in Heilongjiang Province

The numbers of firefighters dispatched in initial attacks of forest fires with different fire parameters in Heilongjiang Province were obtained by sending questionnaires to county level fire commanders.Nonlinear Multivariable models were established to simulate the number from fire parameters in the paper.Analysis was also made on the factors affecting the dispatch decision.The results showed that (1)the models could simulate the process very well.(2)The models constructed based on the data from a single county had much better performance than those based on combined data of several counties.(3)Most of the commanders involved regarded wind as the principal factor in the decision-making and the distance to burning site of the second importance and the area burned the third when the area is less then 2 hm2.(4)The weight of distance to burning site increased with the years of fire fighting that a fire commander has engaged.