宁夏西吉县可持续发展评价与预测

利用生态足迹法对宁夏西吉县近26年来的可持续发展进行了评价研究,构建了该县生态足迹、生态承载力随时间变化的预测模型,预测了未来西吉县的可持续发展趋势。结果表明,西吉县人均生态足迹由1978年的0.1905 hm^2逐年增加至2003年的0.4425 hm^2,而同期的人均生态承载力则由0.3044 hm^2逐年减少到0.2047hm^2,可见生态足迹与生态承载力呈反方向发展趋势。西吉县1978年的生态盈余为0.1139 hm^2,1987年出现生态赤字,2003年人均生态赤字增至0.2378 hm^2。该区1978年的生态压力指数为0.63,1986年为0.99,2003年增至2.16。说明西吉县人口对自然资源的利用从1987年开始超出自然生态系统的承载力,生态经济系统的发展处于不可持续状态。据模型预测,2010年和2015年西吉县人均生态足迹分别为0.5340和0.6397 hm^2,人均生态承载力分别是0.2059和0.2259 hm^2,人均生态赤字分别达到0.3282和0.4138 hm^2。如果不改变现有发展模式,西吉县的生态赤字将不断增加,可持续发展面临更严峻的考验。

Sustainability Evaluation and Prediction in Xiji County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

By ecological footprint method, the sustainability state of Xiji county in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was studied in the past 26 years. And sustainability trend of the county was calculated by forecast model of ecological footprint and ecological capacity. The results showed that ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 0. 190 5 hm^2 to 0. 442 5 hm^2 from 1978 to 2003 , whereas, ecological capacity per capita declined year by year from 0. 304 4 hm^2 to 0. 204 7 hm^2. A conclusion could be drawn that the ecological footprint and ecological capacity development just in the opposite direction. In 1978 the ecological surplus was 0. 113 9 hm^2 , and in 1986 ecological deficit arose, which rose to 0. 237 8 hm^2 at 2003. And the utilization of natural resource of the county was beyond the capacity of the natural ecological system now, the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going up. The forecast showed that ecological footprint per capita would be 0. 534 0 hm^2 in 2010 and 0. 639 7 hm^2 in 2015, and that ecological capacity per capita would be 0. 205 9 hm^2 in 2010 and 0. 225 9 hm^2 in 2015, and that ecological deficit per capita would reach to 0. 328 2 hm^2 in 2010 and 0. 413 8 hm^2 in 2015. The research indicates that the present developing model is not sustainable, the ecological environment is at risk.