草地螟一代幼虫发生面积的气象预报模型

利用内蒙古兴安盟1996-2009年草地螟发生资料和同时段气象资料,分析了草地螟一代幼虫发生面积与气象因子的相关关系,确定了影响草地螟一代幼虫发生面积的主要气象因子;以春季越冬代成虫数量即野外调查的百步惊蛾量和通过相关检验的气象因子为基础,采用多元回归方法建立了草地螟一代幼虫发生面积的气象预报模型。结果表明,一代幼虫发生面积与5月中、下旬相对湿度以及6月中旬平均温度呈正相关,与5月中旬-6月上旬温度以及6月中旬相对湿度呈负相关。通过模型历史回代检验,模拟等级与实际等级完全一致的占77%,与实际相差一个等级的占15%,3级及其以上（中度以上）发生年份的模拟准确率达到100%。通过对2009年草地螟发生面积的试报检验,预报效果较好。利用模型的预报结果可为提前了解草地螟一代幼虫的发生趋势、有效指导当地草地螟防控工作提供参考。

A Meteorological Forecast Model for Occurrence Area 0f the First Generation Larvae Of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus

The relationship between occurrence area of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus and climate conditions was analyzed based on occurrence data of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeusand and meteorological data from 1996 to 2009,and the main meteorological factors influenced occurrence of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus were determined.The meteorological forecast model for occurrence area of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus was established by using multiple regression method based on the survival adult quantity in spring and main meteorological factors.The results showed that occurrence area of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus had positive correlation to relative humidity of mid-and-later May,and average temperature of mid-June,and had negative correlation to average temperature of mid-May and early June,relative humidity of mid-June.77% prediction was consistent with the actual situation and 15% prediction was grade 1 difference with actual situation through back substitution test.100% prediction accuracy meet grade 3.The model also tested by forecasting occurrence area of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus in 2009,and it could provide references for understanding and controlling occurrence of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus in local.