浙江省近10年耕地变化及直接影响因素分析——基于土地详查、变更调查及更新调查成果

为了更直接、更全面、更精确地研究浙江省近10年来耕地变化情况及影响因素，通过挖掘历年的土地调查数据，分析浙江省耕地数量变化情况，探讨了直接影响因素。研究发现，1996-2006年浙江省耕地面积净减少20.8万hm2，减幅为9.8%；耕地变化的自然影响因素中，地形坡度起直接作用，平地及陡坡地耕地减少更为迅速，缓坡地梯田面积有所增加；社会影响因素中，农业产业结构调整、建设用地规模扩展及生态退耕政策的实施直接导致耕地的减少，而严格的耕地保护政策减缓了耕地的流失。总之，耕地减少趋势不可避免，要充分利用更科学的土地利用总体规划及更严格的土地政策，保障社会经济发展的同时保护好耕地。

Arable Land Changes and Direct Affected Factors from 1996 to 2006 in Zhejiang Province Based on Land Survey Results

In order to study the cropland changes and its affected factors in a decade more directly,completely and accurately in Zhejiang province,land survey results of last ten years were used to detect the amount of cropland changes and its direct affected factors.The study presented cropland decreased 20.8×104 hm2,9.8% from 1996 to 2006 in Zhejiang province.Cropland changes had been directly affected by the terrain slope,one of physical affected factors.The cropland decreased faster in flat terrain and steep slope than in gentle slope.Terraced fields increased in gentle slope.Among social affected factors,adjustment of agricultural industrial structure,expansion of the construction land and ecology shifting from agricultural use directly caused the arable land to decrease;strict cropland protection regimes slowed down the trend of arable land decreasing.All in all,the trend of cropland decreasing was inevitable.For social and economic development,cropland protection were all ensured,the more scientific total plan of land use and more strict cropland protection regimes should be made full use.