动态统计气候评估模式在湖北省双季稻生育期中的应用 |
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引用本文: | 马德栗,刘志雄,鞠英芹. 动态统计气候评估模式在湖北省双季稻生育期中的应用[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(27): 244-252. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030012 |
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作者姓名: | 马德栗 刘志雄 鞠英芹 |
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作者单位: | 武汉区域气候中心,武汉区域气候中心,中国气象局气象干部培训学院湖北分院 |
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基金项目: | 湖北省气象局科技发展基金 “干旱背景下鄂中北丘陵区典型种植制度气候风险评估及优化方法研究” (2015Y06)。 |
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摘 要: | 为了更好揭示湖北省双季稻生育期特征, 定量评估气象因子对双季稻产量影响, 选取双季稻产区 4个代表站气象因子和产量资料, 运用动态统计气候影响评估模式分析气象因素变化对产量影响效应。结果表明: 早稻播种 4月 2日, 成熟 7月 18日, 生育期 108天; 晚稻播种 6月 20日, 成熟 10月 22日, 生育期 125天。早、 晚稻的生育期长度变化有所差别, 江夏、 监利早稻生育期长度呈延长趋势, 阳新、 孝感则呈缩短趋势; 江夏、 阳新和孝感晚稻生育期长度呈缩短趋势, 监利则相反。动态统计气候评估模式评估发现受地理、 水文条件影响, 气温对双季稻生育期影响最大, 气温、 日照在双季稻关键生育期变化对产量形成有利, 而降水则相反, 气温升高和降水量减少有利产量形成。
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关 键 词: | 苎麻骨纤维餐具 苎麻骨纤维餐具 生物降解率 活性污泥 |
收稿时间: | 2015-03-03 |
修稿时间: | 2015-05-25 |
Application of Dynamic Statistical Climate Assessment Model to Growth Period of Double Cropping Rice in Hubei Province |
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Abstract: | The paper aims to reveal the characteristics of double cropping rice’ s growth period in Hubei Province, quantitatively assess the effects of meteorological factors on rice yield. The author took the yield data and meteorological factors of double cropping rice of 4 representative stations in Hubei Province, analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and double cropping rice’ s yield during 1961 to 2013 by using the dynamic statistical climate assessment model. The results showed that, early rice planting date was April 2, mature date was July 18, and the growth period lasted for 108 days, while later rice planting date was June 20, mature date was October 22, and the growth period lasted for 125 days. The length of the growth period of double cropping rice was different in 4 representative stations. The growth period of early rice appeared an increasing trend in Jiangxia and Jianli station, while Jiangxin and Xiaogan showed a shortening trend. Dynamic statistical climate assessment model showed that the air temperature had the most influence on the growth period of double cropping rice subjecting to geographical and hydrological conditions. Increasing air temperature and sunlight in critical growth stage of double cropping rice was favorable to yield formation, while more precipitation decreased double cropping rice yield. Under the background of climate warming, higher air temperature and less precipitation increased double cropping rice yield. |
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Keywords: | climate change dynamic statistics yield |
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