基于雷达回波指标的内蒙古通辽地区冰雹天气预报模型

通过对内蒙古通辽市新一代天气雷达建站以来至2013年发生在通辽地区的冰雹天气过程的分析，总结出冰雹天气的9项预报指标。为了将以上确定的预报指标应用到实际的短时、临近预报工作当中，分别对各项指标的性能进行分析，并应用客观预报方法将上述指标组合在一起。采用指标加权集成法，根据每一个指标的相对重要性，赋予指标不同的权重，然后带权集成，建立预报模型方程，得到一个各项指标的结合参数，作为未来是否会有冰雹出现的判断依据，以期提高冰雹的预报预警能力。

Meteorological Forecast Model for Hail Weather in Tongliao Region of Inner Mongolia Based on Radar Echo Index

Based on the analysis of the hail weather process occurred in Tongliao region of Inner Mongolia from the establishment of the new weather radar station to the year of 2013, a total of 9 forecast indexes for hail weather were found. In order to apply the obtained forecast indexes to the practical work of short-term forecast and nowcasting, the performance of the indexes was analyzed, and the indexes were combined by objective forecasting method. The index weighted integrated method was used in this study. In this method, the indicators were endowed with different weights according to their relative significance and were then integrated with weights. The forecast model equations were subsequently established and a binding parameter of the indicators was obtained which was used as a judgment basis for the occurrence of hail. The established forecast model may be helpful for improving the forecasting and warning capability for the hail weather in Tongliao region.