Derivation of a yearly transition probability matrix for land-use dynamics and its applications |
| |
Authors: | Takenori Takada Asako Miyamoto Shigeaki F Hasegawa |
| |
Institution: | (1) Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan;(2) Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan |
| |
Abstract: | Transition matrices have often been used in landscape ecology and GIS studies of land-use to quantitatively estimate the rate
of change. When transition matrices for different observation periods are compared, the observation intervals often differ
because satellite images or photographs of the research site taken at constant time intervals may not be available. If the
observation intervals differ, the transition probabilities cannot be compared without calculating a transition matrix with
the normalized observation interval. For such calculation, several previous studies have utilized a linear algebra formula
of the power root of matrices. However, three difficulties may arise when applying this formula to a practical dataset from
photographs of a research site. We examined the first difficulty, namely that plural solutions could exist for a yearly transition
matrix, which implies that there could be multiple scenarios for the same transition in land-use change. Using data for the
Abukuma Mountains in Japan and the Selva el Ocote Biosphere Reserve in Mexico, we then looked at the second difficulty, in
which we may obtain no positive Markovian matrix and only a matrix partially consisting of negative numbers. We propose a
way to calibrate a matrix with some negative transition elements and to estimate the prediction error. Finally, we discuss
the third difficulty that arises when a new land-use category appears at the end of the observation period and how to solve
it. We developed a computer program to calculate and calibrate the yearly matrices and to estimate the prediction error. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|