Forecasting Earth Surface Temperature for the Optimal Application of Frost Protection Methods

A method is presented which predicts when the earth surface temperature will fall below a safe threshold for plants during a night of frost. The method requires as an input a set of earth surface temperatures which ought to be measured soon after sunset. Unknown parameters of the heat transfer process in the soil and the air are determined by an optimization procedure. Based on these parameters, the evolution of earth surface temperature is predicted for the rest of the night. Simulation experiments show good quality of the prediction.