中国财政支农与农业经济发展关系实证分析

“三农”问题一直是中央政府关注和扶持的重点,财政支农资金也因此呈现逐年增长的态势.通过对1981-2012年统计数据的实证分析,得出财政支农与农业经济发展存在长期协整关系,是农业产值增加的格兰杰意义上的原因,财政支农促进了农业经济的发展;同时,影响农业经济发展的其他几个主要因素,也是农业产值增加的格兰杰原因,但其支农绩效小于财政支农.为提高财政支农对农业经济发展的促进作用,提高农业的综合生产能力,提出了相关对策建议.

Empirical analysis of the relationship between Chinese financial support for agriculture and the development of agricultural economy

The issues of agriculture, countryside and farmers have been the focus of national attention and support, financial funds for agricultural expenditure have been showing yearly growth. Based on the empirical analysis of the statistical data of 1981-2012, it is included that the financial support for agriculture and agricultural economic development exist the cointegration relationship, and also is the Granger cause of increasing agricultural output, and financial support for agriculture promotes the development of agricultural economy; meanwhile, other major factors affecting the development of agriculture economy also are the Granger cause of increasing agricultural output, but the performance are lower than the financial support for agriculture. To improve the role of fiscal support on the agricultural economic development, and improve the comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the ralated countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.