应用计算机和气象资料对草场上马歇尔线虫数量季节消长预测技术的研究

根据土源性寄生线虫体外发育期间受温度、湿度、季节和宿主动物影响的原理，采用电子计算机对上述因子和马歇尔线虫从虫卵发育到侵袭性幼虫的速度、数量进行分析回归，制定出模拟模型，设计出草场上该种线虫从虫卵发育到侵袭性幼虫数量的预测预报公式。将气象资料代入公式计算出侵袭性幼虫季节消长曲线，并与草场上羊体内成虫数量消长曲线相互对比。研究初步显示，可以采用气象资料通过计算机计算处理预测草场上马歇尔线虫侵袭性幼虫数量的季节动态，从而为制订防治措施提供科学依据。

Study on the Prediction Techniques of the Population and Seasonal Changes of Marshall Wireworm in Grassland by Using Computer and Meteorological Data

According to the principle that temperature, humidity, season and host influenced the development in vitro of soiltransmitted parasitic nematodes, the regression analysis on the above factors and the speed and number of Marshall wireworm from egg to invasive larva was made. The simulation model was made and the prediction formula on the number of Marshall wireworm from egg to invasive larva was designed. The seasonable dynamic curve of invasive larva was calculated by applying meteorological data in the formula. And it was compared with the dynamic curve of adult number in sheep in the grassland. The research showed that the seasonal changes of the number of invasive larva of Marshall wireworm in grassland could be predicted by using computer processing with meteorological data, which could provide scientific basis for making control measures.