Evidence for long‐term spatial displacement of breeding and pupping harbour seals by shellfish aquaculture over three decades

• 1. Shellfish mariculture is increasing worldwide and often occurs adjacent to marine mammal breeding and feeding habitat. To better understand breeding pinniped vulnerability to potential shellfish mariculture disturbance and displacement effects in a US National Park, potential mechanisms were explored that may affect the proportion of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) selecting high quality haul‐out sites near shellfish aquaculture within a large colony, and overall seal utilization of that colony in relation to other regional colonies.
• 2. Seal haul‐out sites isolated from the mainland (no predator access) had higher pup:adult ratios, indicating they are generally more important for pupping. Short‐term human disturbance did not have a significant effect on spatial use, but rather spatial use was pre‐determined by general sandbar isolation. Using multiple competing hypothesis and an information‐theoretic approach, it was found that within the estuary, after removing effects of El Niño, the proportion of seals (total seals and pups only) hauled out near mariculture sites was 8 ± 2% lower during years of higher oyster harvest. Annual oyster harvest was used as a measure of aquaculture activity that could result in direct disturbance or indirect displacement of harbour seals.
• 3. At the regional scale, oyster harvest, seal counts at a nearby colony, and loss of a major haul‐out site within the estuary, best explained pup and total seal use compared with the region. Regional population size, short‐term human disturbance rate, and other factors were not important. Concurrent with higher oyster harvest, the proportion of regional seals using the estuary declined by 7 ± 2% for seal pups (–65 ± 18 total pups), and 5 ± 2% for total counts ( ? 192 ± 58 total seals). These findings (both within the estuary and at the regional scale) were essentially identical whether modelling oyster harvest as either a continuous or categorical (low/high) variable and when using either frequentist or Bayesian statistical analyses.
• 4. Marine reserves set aside for wildlife may be less effective when the highest quality breeding and pupping sites are adjacent to regular aquaculture activities. These effects may not be detectable until additional natural variation lowers the quality of nearby habitats. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.