基于动态空间杜宾模型的2008—2018年中国粮食全要素生产率增产效应

基于动态空间杜宾模型实证测算和分析中国(不含香港、澳门、台湾)2008—2018年省级层面的粮食全要素生产率增产效应。研究显示:2008—2018年中国粮食全要素生产率稳步提升,由2008年的1.024增至2018年的1.156,高效率产区由2008年的0个增至2018年的11个,但提升过程出现“马太效应”。粮食全要素生产率的提升能够显著促进粮食增产,其增产效应仅次于粮食播种面积。从全国层面看,邻近地区粮食全要素生产率的提升对本地粮食增产具有显著的正溢出效应。从空间结构看,粮食全要素生产率的溢出效应存在显著的空间异质性,中部地区存在显著负溢出效应,西部地区表现为正溢出效应,东部地区无显著溢出效应。

Yield-increasing effect of grain total factor productivity in China from 2008 to 2018 based on dynamic space Durbin model

In the present study, the yield-increasing effect of grain total factor productivity at provincial level in China (Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan excluded) from 2008 to 2018 was empirically measured based on the dynamic spatial Durbin model. It was shown that the grain total factor productivity increased steadily from 1.024 in 2008 to 1.156 in 2018 in China, and the number of high-efficiency production regions increased from 0 in 2008 to 11 in 2018, but the “Matthew effect” emerged in the process of improvement. The rise in grain total factor productivity could significantly contribute to the increase of grain yield, and its effect was second to the sown area of grains. At the national level, the increase in grain total factor productivity in the neighboring region brought a significant positive spillover effect to the local region. From the spatial structure, the spillover effect of grain total factor productivity showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with a significant negative spillover effect in the central China, a positive spillover effect in west China, and no significant spillover effect in east China.