交通基础设施、空间溢出与农村减贫——基于面板数据的实证研究

交通基础设施建设是农村扶贫开发的一项重要工作。利用2008—2017年中国除香港、澳门、台湾、西藏外的30个省级行政区的面板数据,构建邻接矩阵和反地理距离矩阵,在进行空间相关检验的基础上选择相应空间计量模型,研究交通基础设施密度对农村减贫的直接效应和空间溢出效应。结果显示:省级层面上,农村贫困水平表现出显著(P<0.01)的空间集聚特征,省际分布呈现出高-高集聚或低-低集聚的特点,且随时间发展局部空间集聚特征逐渐增强。整体来看,公路密度和铁路密度的增大不仅对本地的农村减贫具有显著(P<0.01)的促进作用,对邻近地区的农村减贫也具有显著(P<0.05)的空间溢出效应,且在这2种效应上都以铁路的效果更好。从区域层面来看,公路密度的增大对本地的农村减贫仅在西部地区有显著(P<0.01)的直接效应,对邻近地区的农村减贫仅在东部地区产生显著的(P<0.01)空间溢出效应。铁路密度的增大在东部和中部地区对本地和邻近地区的农村减贫都具有显著(P<0.05)的促进作用,且这2种效应在中部地区的效果都较东部地区更好。据此建议,东部和中部地区应该优化铁路网络结构,提高路网质量,增大铁路在农村地区的覆盖范围和通达程度;西部地区应该积极发展公路交通,同时补齐铁路短板,通过促进当地资源开发和物资输出,发挥带动就业和减贫的作用。

Transportation infrastructure,spatial spillover and rural poverty reduction:an empirical study based on panel data

The construction of transportation infrastructure is an important work for rural poverty reduction. In this paper, the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Tiebet not included) from 2008 to 2017 were used to construct adjacency matrix and inverse geographical distance matrix. Based on the spatial correlation test, the corresponding spatial econometric model was selected to study the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of transportation infrastructure density on rural poverty reduction. The results showed that, the rural poverty level exhibited a significant (P<0.01) spatial clustering feature on the whole, while the inter-provincial distribution exhibited the characteristics of high-high or low-low agglomeration, and this characteristic gradually increased with time. From a national perspective,the increase of road density and railway density not only significantly (P<0.01) promoted the local rural poverty reduction, but also had a significant (P<0.05) spatial spillover effect on the rural poverty reduction in neighboring areas, and the railway had a better poverty reduction effect in both of the two effects. From a regional perspective, the increase of road density not only significantly (P<0.01) promoted the local rural poverty reduction in the western region, but also had a significant (P<0.01) spatial spillover effect on the rural poverty reduction in neighboring areas in the eastern region. The increase of railway density had a significant (P<0.05) role in promoting rural poverty reduction in the local and neighboring areas in both the eastern and central regions, and the effect on poverty reduction in the central region was better than that in the eastern region in both of the two effects. Therefore, it was suggested that the government in the eastern and central regions should optimize the railway network structure, improve the quality of the road network, and increase the coverage and accessibility of railways in rural areas. In the western region, the government should actively develop road traffic, and at the same time make up for the shortcomings of railways. By promoting local resource development and material export, it would play a role in promoting employment and realizing poverty reduction.