基于土地利用变化的黄河三角洲生态服务价值损益分析

综合利用遥感和地理信息系统技术，对黄河三角洲1992－2005年间的土地利用变化进行解译判读，构建区域生态系统服务价值评价模型，对生态系统服务价值进行系统核算，量化土地利用变化对黄河三角洲生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明：黄河三角洲区域生态系统服务价值在1992、1996、2001和2005年分别为48.75×108、49.75×108、58.18×108和 49.22×108元。滩涂地、灌草地和水域是生态系统服务价值构成中贡献最大的3种土地利用类型，占到总生态系统服务价值的80%以上。利用马尔柯夫过程对2010年的土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行预测，2010年区域生态系统服务价值将减少为47.77×108元。如果考虑海岸线蚀退的趋势，区域生态系统服务价值将会进一步减少。

Profit and loss analysis on ecosystem services value based on land use change in Yellow River Delta

With the aim to investigate variations in ecosystem services in response to land use changes, techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system were integrated into the evaluation model to calculate the ecosystem services value in the Yellow River Delta from 1992 to 2005. The results indicated that the total ecosystem services value in 1992, 1996, 2001 and 2005 were 48.75×108, 49.75×108, 58.18×108 and 49.22×108 yuan, respectively. Tide land, shrub and grass land, and water body were the land use types that made the greatest contributions to the total ecosystem services value of the study region. The accumulative ecosystem services value of three land use types accounted for over 80% of the total value in the Yellow River Delta, indicating that these land use categories played important and remarkable roles in ecosystem services in the study region. The land use pattern of the Yellow River Delta in 2010 was predicted using the Markov model. The predicted total ecosystem services value in 2010 would reach 47.77×108 yuan. The total ecosystem services value might decrease further if the encroachment of coastline was taken into account.