赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构 “非粮化” 空间分异及其驱动力探测——以寻乌县为例

为刻画赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分布差异，严格落实耕地保护和科学管控“非粮化”，本研究以江西省寻乌县为例，采用地理探测器因子检测、交互作用检测等方法揭示赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异特征及其成因。结果表明：2020年寻乌县农业产业结构“非粮化”水平为19.42%，以耕地转为林地和园地为主。农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异与耕地本底条件、自然资源禀赋、经济区位、政策环境4个维度的因子均显著相关，而地形、农田基础设施条件、耕地连片度是农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异的主导驱动因子。不同农业产业类型“非粮化”的关键驱动因子不同，多数因子对耕地发展林果业和设施农业的驱动方向相反，农业产业结构“非粮化”因子交互作用均为双因子增强或非线性增强。研究表明，赣南低山丘陵区农业产业结构“非粮化”空间分异明显，需要管控农业产业结构“非粮化”总量并客观分类处置，本研究为“非粮化”分类监测和客观处置提供了参考，为低山丘陵区优化农业资源要素配置和农业产业空间布局提出建议。

Spatial differentiation and driving forces behind non-grain agricultural production in the low mountain and hilly areas of southern Jiangxi： a case study of Xunwu County

In order to describe the spatial distribution difference of non-grain agricultural production structure in low mountain and hilly areas of southern Jiangxi, the cultivated land protection and scientific control of non-grain should be strictly implemented. Taking Xunwu County as an example, geographical detector factor detection, interaction detection and other methods were used to reveal the spatial differentiation characteristics and causes of non-grain agricultural production in the low mountain and hilly areas of southern Jiangxi to provide a policy formulation reference for effective prevention and control of non-grain production in such areas. The results showed 19.42% non-grain agricultural production in Xunwu County in 2020, and cultivated land was mainly converted into forest and garden land. Spatial differentiation of non-grain production was significantly related to the four dimensions of cultivated land background conditions, natural resource endowment, economic location, and policy environment, while topography, farmland infrastructure, and cultivated land concentration were important driving factors behind the spatial differentiation. The same driving factors have greatly different driving directions for the development of forest and fruit production and facility agriculture on cultivated land. The interactive relationship between factors of non-grain production is a two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. According to the spatial differentiation characteristics of agricultural non-grain production structure in the hilly area of southern Jiangxi, it provides a reference for the classification monitoring and objective disposal of non-grain, and provides suggestions for optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources and the spatial layout of agricultural production in the hilly area of southern Jiangxi.