| 基于BP神经网络人均猪肉需求量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李双晶,;王福林. 基于BP神经网络人均猪肉需求量预测[J]. 湖南农业科学, 2014, 0(8): 62-64 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李双晶, 王福林 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]东北农业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150030; [2]黑龙江司法警官职业学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150060 |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来,由于猪肉安全事故和供求关系等因素的影响,导致猪肉市场价格波动大,养猪业难以持续稳定发展。科学预测猪肉需求量,对科学指导生猪生产和宏观调控猪肉市场价格意义重大。笔者根据历年数据,采用BP神经网络预测方法,实现在MATLAB中运行,通过对模型的多次训练,选择隐层神经元数目为6个,达到了期望效果。预测结果表明,2012~2016年,我国人均猪肉需求量分别为34.10、38.12、38.66、40.28和40.60kg/a。
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| 关 键 词： | 猪肉 需求量 BP神经网络 预测 |
Prediction of Per Capita Pork Demand Based on BP Neural Network |
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| Affiliation: | LI Shuang-jing, WANG Fu-lin (1.Northeast A rgricultural University, Haerbin 150030, PRC; 2. Heilongjiang Judicial Police Vocational College, Haerbin 150060, PRC ) |
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| Abstract: | Now the pig industry in China is facing with many kinds of risks such as epidemic disease, food security and market risk.Especially the market risk influences the pig industry deeply, resulting in the pork price fluctuations. The scientific forecast of pork demand can offer accurate information on pork quantity demanded, which is of significance to the macro-control of pig industry. According to the related data over recent years, the back propagation neural network method is used in MATLAB to distinguish complicated nonlinearity system characteristics, with high-speed self-study and self-adaption ability; and the per capita demand for pork is 38.66 kg, 40.27 kg or40.59 kg in future three years, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | pork demand back propagation neural network prediction |
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