2020年国内外天然橡胶产业形势和2021年展望

2020年我国天然橡胶生产受白粉病、台风和冬季低温影响,而国外天然橡胶生产受新冠肺炎疫情、落叶病和台风影响,我国及全球天然橡胶产量分别下降14.9%和6.9%。疫情导致全球天然橡胶出口减少2.9%,消费下降6.9%,而我国的天然橡胶进口量同比增加13.7%,消费量与2019年相当。国内外天然橡胶价格年平均值未出现类似2008年世界金融危机期间的大幅度下跌,国内市场全乳标准胶年平均价格每吨1.16万元,比上年上升2.19%;国际市场年平均价格每吨1327美元,下降6.35%。展望2021年,国内外天然橡胶产业仍然处于供应大于需求阶段,新冠疫情影响仍将继续,我国天然橡胶消费增长可能放慢,而全球宽松货币和汽车产销将有利天然橡胶价格提升。

Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Industry Situation in 2020 and Prospect in 2021

In 2020,the natural rubber production of China was affected by powdery mildew,typhoons,low temperature in winter,while the natural rubber production of foreign countries was affected by COVID-19 epidemic,leaf cast and typhoons.The natural rubber production of China and the world declined by 14.9%and 6.9%respectively.As a result of COVID-19 epidemic,global exports of natural rubber reduced by 2.9%,and the global natural rubber consumption dropped by 6.9%.However,China’s imports of natural rubber increased by 13.7%year-on-year,and natural rubber consumption in 2020 was equivalent to that in 2019.The annual average price of the natural rubber at home and abroad did not show a sharp decline similar to that during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.The average annual price of SCRWF in the domestic market is 11,600 yuan per ton,2.19%higher than the previous year,while the average annual price in the international market is USD 1,327 per ton(declined by 6.35%).In 2021,COVID-19 epidemic may continue to prevail,so the natural rubber industry at home and abroad will face the challenges of continuous surplus supply.China’s natural rubber consumption growth may slow down,but global monetary easing policies and the production and marketing of automobiles will favour the rubber market.