西南冷凉高地苹果最大可能生育期内气候生产潜力评价——以云南昭通为例

基于云南昭通1958−2019年逐日气象观测数据、1978−2018年苹果种植统计数据和2010−2018年果园生产调查和观测数据，采用线性趋势分析、逐级订正等方法，探讨云南昭通苹果最大可能生育期内农业气候资源和农业气象灾害的变化特征，估算当地气候生产潜力，以高效合理利用农业气候资源、科学布局苹果产业。结果表明：（1）1958−2019年，云南昭通无霜期、稳定通过10℃的持续时间分别显著增加3.5d和4.5d，理论上能满足苹果生育所需，但昭通苹果花芽膨大期与终霜日和稳定通过10℃起始日期不匹配，成熟期与初霜日和稳定通过10℃终止日期不匹配。（2）根据云南昭通2010−2018年苹果实际生育期，明确了当地苹果最大可能生育期为稳定通过3℃起始日期−稳定通过13℃终止日期。1958−2019年，云南昭通苹果最大可能生育期内平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温分别为11.8、16.1和22.6℃，分别以0.1、0.04和0.05℃·10a−1的速率增加；气温日较差平均为10.89℃，以0.2℃·10a−1的速率减少。降水量和日照时数分别以1.0mm·10a−1和6.7h·10a−1的速率减少。（3）过去62a，云南昭通苹果花期低温发生风险较低，不是当地苹果生长期内的主要农业气象灾害，连阴雨发生风险较高，且主要分布在苹果关键生育期6−9月。（4）在当地气候背景下，苹果最高理论产量约为94t·hm−2，光温、气候生产潜力分别占光合生产潜力的83.0%和76.0%，研究期内昭通果园实际产量仅为光合生产潜力的35.0%，统计产量仅为光合生产潜力的10.0%。随着技术进步和品种选育，果园实际产量与生产潜力的差距逐渐缩小。云南昭通气象条件能充分满足苹果生长发育，通过合理、高效栽植技术应用及对农业气候资源的充分挖掘，可进一步提高苹果产量，提升品质。

Evaluation of Potential Climatic Production of Apple during the Possible Growing Period at Zhaotong,Yunnan across Cool Highland of Southwest China

Based on the daily meteorological data(1958-2019), the statistical production data(1978-2018) and the observed planting data of apple(2010-2018) at Zhaotong in Yunnan, the change of agricultural climatic resources and meteorological disaster were analyzed, while the local climatic potential production on apple was estimated using linear trend analysis and step by step correction. The aim of this paper can make more efficient and rational use of agricultural climate resources and scientifically guide to the apple industry layout. The results showed that:(1) during 1958-2019, the duration days of frost-free period and stable passing through 10℃ significantly increased by 3.5 and 4.5 days, respectively. Theoretically, the duration can match the apple needs. However, the starting date of flower bud expansion and mature were more advanced than the last frost date and the ending date of stable passing through 10℃;(2) According to the actual phenology of apple at Zhaotong from 2010 to 2018, we calculated the most possibility phenological from the starting date of stable passing through 3℃ and the ending date of stable passing 13℃.So in this period of 1958-2019, average minimum temperature, average temperature and maximum temperature were 11.8, 16.1 and 22.6℃ respectively, with different increase rate of 0.1, 0.04 and 0.05℃·10 y^-1. The average daily temperature range was 10.89℃ with decreased rate of 0.2℃·10 y^-1. The precipitation and sunshine hours decreased with 1.0 mm·10 y^-1 and 6.7 h·10 y^-1, respectively;(3) In the past 62 years, the risk of low temperature during flowering period was less, which was not the main agricultural meteorological disaster at Zhaotong. The risk of continuous rain was higher from June to September, which occur in the key growth period of apple;(4) The maximum theoretical yield of apple was about 100 t·ha^-1. With the restrictions of temperature and water, the production potential of light temperature and climate accounted for 83.0% and 76.0% of the photosynthetic production potential, respectively. However, the actual apple yield and the statistical yield across the whole county were only 35% and 10% of the photosynthetic production potential. With the development of technology and breeding of varieties, the gap is gradually narrowed. Generally, the meteorological conditions at Zhaotong can fully meet the needs of apple growth and development. Through the application of reasonable and efficient planting techniques and the full excavation of agricultural climate resources, the difference in apple yield can be further reduced and the quality of apple can be improved.