Simulation of nutrition of forests under stress using FORCYTE-11

Forest ecosystems are being subjected to an increasing variety of stresses for which we do not yet have rotation-length experience. Where we lack such experience, we cannot make experience-based predictions of the long-term effects of these stresses. While we are accumulating such experience, computer models can be used to make interim knowledge-based predictions. Most scientific knowledge has been produced by reductionist, disciplinary, process-based research. Such knowledge is a vital component of any explanation of natural or human-induced landscape phenomena, but cannot, in its reductionist, disciplinary form, provide an adequate basis on its own for long-term predictions about these phenomena. Such predictions require the development of computer models of ecosystem form and function based on the integration of knowledge from eco-physiology, autecology, community ecology, soil science, and climatology into ecosystem-level models that accurately describe the function and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems. The ability of the ecosystem-level forest management simulation model FORCYTE-11 (FORest nutrientCycling andYieldTrendEvaluator) to simulate forest stresses is described briefly. The question of how to model other stresses, such as air pollution, acid rain, climate change, soil compaction and erosion, and moisture competition is discussed, and the outline of a new model (FORECAST:FORestry andEnvironmentalChangeASsessmenT) is presented.