1973～2003年中国林业生态足迹的研究

生态足迹是评价可持续发展能力重要指标之一,该方法自提出以来得到广泛关注和迅速应用。首先,本文分析了中国1973-2003年木材生产、进口和出口情况,结果表明,中国在1973-1995年期间木材生产呈明显波动变化趋势,1995年后呈现连续下降趋势;木材进口在1995年后特别是天然林保护工程实施后呈增长趋势,而木材出口在1995年后呈逐年下降趋势。然后,采用改进的生态足迹方法(即森林可持续产量法与森林实际生产法)计算了中国1973-2003年间的林业生态足迹(包括进口与出口林业生态足迹),分析表明,1978-1988年期间,实际生产法计算林地真实面积小于可持续产量法计算结果,而1989-2003年正相反,上述两种方法的计算结果均大于用全球产量计算的林业生态足迹。说明中国在1978-1988年间森林资源消耗量大于生长量,林业发展是不可持续的;1989年后森林资源消耗出现长大于消的局面,林业朝着可持续的方向发展,但同林业发达国家相比仍有较大的差距。最后,讨论了林业生态足迹与国家重要政策(包括外贸、经济与森林保护政策)的关系,并提出了减少林业生态足迹与增强林业可持续发展能力的几点建议。图3表1参31。

Forestry ecological footprint in China during 1973–2003

The ecological footprint (EF) model has received much attention as an assessment indicator for sustainable development in recent years. Firstly, the temporal changes of domestic timber production, imports and exports in China were analyzed from 1973 to 2003, the analysis results showed an apparent fluctuation in timber production during 1973–1995 but a decreasing trend during 1995–2002, an increasing trend in timber imports since 1995 especially after the implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP), an decreasing trend year by year in timber exports since 1995. Secondly, this paper presented a time series analysis of actual forest area demand in the sustainable yield and production approach in China from 1973 to 2003, which includes both import and export forest area demand. The results showed the actual forest area demand simulated from the sustainable yield approach was slightly higher than that from the production approach during 1978–1988 and a little lower during 1989–2003; however, the actual forest area demands simulated by these two model approaches were larger than calculations that expressed in conventional forest EF. Meanwhile, the results indicated the forestry development in China during 1978–1988 was unsustainable due to overexploitation of forest stocking volumes, and China’s forestry moved toward sustainable development since 1989 because forest resources are exploited at lower rates than they are regenerated. However, compared to forestry developed countries, the forestry development capacity in China is still lower. Finally, based on the model results we analyzed the relationships between forestry EF and the key policies, including trade policy, economic policy and forest conservation programs. In addition, several suggestions about reducing forestry EF and enhancing sustainable forestry development in China are given. Biography: HU Xiao-fei (1974–), female, postgraduate student in the Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, P.R. China.