近30 a全国棉花生产区域时空变化及区域优势分析

【目的】分析全国棉花生产布局变化,研究棉花生产时空变化特征与区域优势,为合理的配置棉花生产资源提供参考。【方法】基于全国近30 a来棉花总产量、播种面积、单产等数据,以全国主要种植棉花省(市、区)为研究单元,综合运用统计工具分析全国棉花生产时空变化和区域优势,研究棉花生产变化的总体特征、地域格局演变特征。【结果】1990年以来全国棉花总产量年际变化呈现两个阶段:波动上升时期(1991~2007年),除新疆显著上升外,大部分省(市、区)缓慢下降;波动下降时期(2008~2020年),黄河流域和长江流域棉区下降较快,西北内陆棉区尤其新疆显著增加。近30 a全国棉花总产量显著增加,由5.09×10⁹ kg增加至5.91×10⁹ kg,增加了16.11%,空间上呈现“东南-西北”格局;单产与总产量变化相似,在全国范围内持续增加;播种面积则不同,生产重心呈现出“由东向西”转移,逐渐向西北集中的态势。全国棉花总产量变化总体上以播种面积贡献为主导,其次互作主导,单产为最低,我国棉花的生产优势区域为新疆。【结论】30 a来全国棉花播种面积先减后增,生产集中程度不断增大,优势产区趋于稳定,单产逐步提升;棉花生产布局呈现全国棉花生产重心呈现出由南向北,再由北向西北内陆棉区(尤其是新疆)变迁的特点。

Spatio-temporal variation and regional advantages of cotton production in recent 30 years in China

【Objective】To study the changes of cotton production distribution in China and analyze the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes and regional advantages of cotton production, which will be of important practical significance for more rational allocation of agricultural production resources and formulation of scientific and effective cotton production policies.【Methods】Based on China's total cotton output, sown area, unit yield and other indicators in recent 30 years, this study took the whole country and provinces as research units, comprehensively used statistical tools to analyze the spatial-temporal changes and regional advantages of China's cotton production, and revealed the overall characteristics and regional pattern evolution characteristics of China's cotton production changes.【Results】The results showed that: (1) the interannual variation of total cotton yield since 1990 showed two stages: fluctuating upward period (1991-2007), except for Xinjiang, which increased significantly, most provinces and regions decreased slowly; During the period of fluctuating decline (2008-2020), the cotton areas in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin declined rapidly, and the cotton areas in the northwest inland, especially Xinjiang, increased significantly. (2) China's total cotton output has increased significantly in the past 30 years, from 5.09 × 10⁹ kg to 5.91 × 10⁹ kg, an increase of 16.11%, forming a "southeast→northwest" pattern in space; The change of yield per unit area is similar to that of total yield, and continued to increase nationwide; however, the sown area was different, and the production center of gravity showed a trend of "shifting from east to west" and gradually concentrating to the northwest. (3) In general, the change of the total cotton output in China was dominated by the contribution of the sown area, followed by the interaction, and the yield per unit area was the lowest. Since then, Xinjiang has become the dominant region of cotton production in China.【Conclusion】Over the past 30 years, the sown area of cotton in China has decreased first and then increased, the degree of production concentration has been increasing, the dominant production areas have tended to be stable, and the unit yield has gradually increased. The national production layout of cotton shows that the center of cotton production in China has changed from south to north, and then from north to Northwest (Xinjiang).