洪洞县农业干旱灾害风险评价与区划研究

干旱是人类面临的主要自然灾害之一，笔者结合降水距平公式对洪洞县1980—2010年冬小麦的干旱情况进行了详细的划分，深入探讨了不同阶段冬小麦干旱的时间和空间特征，并总结了一定的规律。此外，对洪洞县的所有站点，运用人类生存环境风险评价法，结合GIS软件对冬小麦干旱灾害风险指数DDRI进行研究与区划。结果表明：（1）洪洞县一般干旱和强干旱的发生频率均表现为20世纪80年代最高，21世纪初次之，20世纪90年代最低；（2）洪洞县冬小麦干旱灾害高风险区主要集中在万安镇和曲亭镇，这2个乡镇是洪洞县防御冬小麦干旱的重点区域，低风险和轻微风险主要分布在北部地区及中南部地区。

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Hongdong County

Drought is one of the major natural disasters. We used precipitation anomaly formula to analyze drought disaster to winter wheat in Hongdong 1980-2010, discussed the spacial and temporal characteristics of drought in different winter wheat growth stages, and concluded the rule of drought occurrence. In addition, we used the human environment risk assessment method, combining with GIS software, to study and zone the drought disaster risk index DDRI of winter wheat in all sites of Hongdong. The results showed that: (1) the frequency of drought and severe drought was the highest in the 1980s in Hongdong, followed by the beginning of the 21^st century, and was the lowest in 1990s; (2) the high risk areas of winter wheat drought were mainly in Wanan and Quting, which should be the key areas for winter wheat drought prevention; low-risk and minor risk areas were mainly distributed in the northern and the central-southern part of Hongtong.