古浪县生态足迹计算与可持续发展状况分析

为分析古浪县近几年可持续发展状况及当前发展模式的可行性程度，及时解决有碍当地发展的问题，应用生态足迹法、时间动态模型及变化速率分析法和剪刀差分析法，依据2008—2012年甘肃统计年鉴的资料数据，对古浪县5年的生态足迹进行计算，从时序上比较分析古浪县生态足迹的变化原因和规律，并且得到了该地区生态足迹、生态承载力、生态足迹和生态承载力变化速度和剪刀差等随时间变化的动态模型，预测了未来10年古浪县的可持续发展趋势。结果表明，古浪县人均生态足迹由2008年的0.837728 hm²逐年增加到2012年的1.155636 hm²，而人均生态承载力由2008年的1.876579 hm²逐年减少到2012年的1.606876 hm²，可见两者呈现反方向的发展趋势。古浪县2008—2012年虽未出现生态赤字，但生态盈余由2008年的1.048851 hm²/人逐年减少到2012年的0.451240 hm²/人，说明古浪县人口对自然资源的利用逐年增加。古浪县2008—2012年万元GDP生态足迹由髙向低变化，而生态占用率由低向高变化，反映了随着经济的发展，古浪县的生物生产面积利用率和资源利用率有所提高，但对生态环境的压力也逐年增加。预测模型进一步说明了古浪县2022年人均生态足迹和生态承载力分别为2.6289、0.2368 hm²，其人均生态赤字达到2.3921 hm²。表明生态环境处于不安全状态，暗示当前发展模式不可持续。

Study on Ecological Footprint and Sustainable Development in Gulang

The paper aims to analyze the sustainable development of Gulang in recent years and the feasibility of the current development model and resolve some development problems in time. The ecological footprint (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) of Gulang from 2008 to 2012 were calculated, and the historical change pattern and causes of EF and EC during this period were analyzed based on the ecological footprint analysis, change rate analysis and scissors difference analysis. A forecast model for sustainable development trend of Gulang was developed. The average personal EF gradually increased from 0.837728 to 1.155636 hm2 from 2008 to 2012, whereas the average personal EC declined from 1.876579 to 1.606876 hm2, thus the EF and EC of Gulang developed in opposite directions, which suggested the change was not too obvious. Although there was not an ecological deficit in Gulang, the surplus decreased from 1.048851 to 0.451240 hm2 from2008 to 2012, indicating that the use of resource was increasing rapidly. Over the same period, the EF per ten thousand yuan GDP decreased, while the ecological occupation rate increased, suggesting that the biologically productive area, the resource utilization rate and the ecological pressure were all increasing. This model forecasts that the average personal EF and EC would be 2.6289 and 0.2368 hm2 , respectively, and the average personal deficit would reach 2.3921 hm2 in 2022. The results further indicate that the ecological environment of Gulang is not safe and the present development model is not sustainable.