中国对美国木质林产品出口波动分析

采用联合国统计署2002-2010年的贸易数据, 运用CMS模型对中国出口美国木质林产品的波动进行实证分析。结果表明:竞争力效应是中国出口美国木质林产品增长的主要因素, 结构效应则是中国对美国木质林产品出口波动的最主要动因, 交叉效应作用不明显; 2008-2010年, 受金融危机的影响, 中国及主要国家对美国木质林产品的出口都出现了负增长, 这也体现在增长效应对各国出口显著的抑制作用上。

Empirical Analysis on Causes for Exportation Fluctuation of Timber-Forest Products from China to America: Based on CMS Model

Using the constant market share (CMS) model, this paper analyzes the exportation fluctuation of timber-forest products from China to America by 2002-2010 trade date from UN Comtrade. It finds that the exportation growth of Chinese timber-forest products to America is mainly from the competitive effect. The structural effect is the mainly reason for the exportation fluctuation of timber-forest products from China to America; cross-effect is not significantly. By the financial crisis from 2008 to 2010, the exportation of timber-forest products from China and the main countries to America are negative increase; this also reflected in growth effects inhibit the exportation of China and the main countries.