黑龙江省陆地生态系统生产力及人口承载力分析

陆地生态系统生产力及人口承载力是生态承载力的重要指标。利用黑龙江省气象、陆地生态系统面积、畜禽和水产品产量等资料，从陆地生态系统生产力整体观点出发，采用模型计算方法，分析了黑龙江省陆地生态系统生产力及人口承载力。结果表明：1967-2006年黑龙江省陆地生态系统年均总生产力为1.67×1011 kg DM• a-1，其中森林、农田、草原和湿地的年均总生产力分别为0.85×1011、0.43×1011 、0.13×1011、0.25×1011 kg DM• a-1；在宽裕型、小康型与富裕型3种消费水平下年均总人口承载力分别为0.85、0.72和0.63亿。2020、2050和2010年陆地生态系统总生产力分别为2.21×1011、2.32×1011和2.41×1011 kg DM• a-1；在3种消费水平下总人口承载力分别为1.15、0.98、0.88亿；1.22、1.03、0.94亿；以及1.27、1.07、0.98亿。目前黑龙江省总人口为0.38亿，在富裕型的消费水平下黑龙江省仍有相当程度的粮食输出能力，在中国的粮食安全战略中具有重要地位。

Analysis of Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity and Its Carrying Capacity in Heilongjiang Province

Terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity are the important index of ecological carrying. With observational daily meteorological data, areas data of terrestrial ecosystem, output data of livestock and marine product in Heilongjiang Province from 1967 to 2006, based on the overall views of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, the model calculation methods were applied, the terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity were analyzed. The results show that the total average yearly productivity of terrestrial ecosystem was 1.67×1011 kg DM• a-1 in Heilongjiang Province from 1967 to 2006, the total average yearly productivity of forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland were respectively 0.85×1011,0.43×1011 ,0.13×1011 and 0.25×1011 kg DM• a-1, the total average yearly carrying capacities were respectively 0.85×108、0.72×108 and 0.63×108 under three consumption levels of well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus consumption levels. The total yearly productivity of terrestrial ecosystem were respectively 2.21×1011, 2.32×1011 and 2.41×1011 kg DM• a-1 in 2020, 2050 and 2100, the total carrying capacities were respectively 1.15×108,0.98×108, 0.88×108；1.22×108,1.03×108,0.94×108；1.27×108,1.07×108,0.98×108 for the above consumption levels in Heilongjiang Province. The total population is 0.38×108 at present in Heilongjiang Province, the food export capacity is considerably powerful under surplus consumption levels for Heilongjiang Province, the status of Heilongjiang Province is important for the food safety strategy in China.