The effect of exposure on landscape scale soil surface temperatures and species distribution models |
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Authors: | Michael B Ashcroft Laurie A Chisholm Kristine O French |
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Institution: | (1) GeoQuEST Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia;(2) Institute for Conservation Biology and Law, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia |
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Abstract: | Species distribution models (SDMs) often use elevation as a surrogate for temperature or utilise elevation sensitive interpolations
from weather stations. These methods may be unsuitable at the landscape scale, especially where there are sparse weather stations,
dramatic variations in exposure or low elevational ranges. The goal of this study was to determine whether radiation, moisture
or a novel estimate of exposure could improve temperature estimates and SDMs for vegetation on the Illawarra Escarpment, near
Sydney, Australia. Forty temperature sensors were placed on the soil surface of an approximately 12,000 ha study site between
November 2004 and August 2006. Linear regression was used to determine the relationship with environmental factors. Elevation
was correlated more with moderate temperatures (winter maximums, summer minimums, spring and autumn averages) than extreme
temperatures (summer maximums, winter minimums). The correlation (r
2) between temperature and environmental factors was improved by up to 0.38 by incorporating exposure, moisture and radiation
in the regressions. Summer maximums and winter minimums were predominately determined by exposure to the NW and coastal influences
respectively, while exposure to the NE and SW was important during other seasons. These directions correspond with the winds
that are most influential in the study area. The improved temperature estimates were used in Generalised Additive Models for
37 plant species. The deviance explained by most models was increased relative to elevation, especially for moist rainforest
species. It was concluded that improving the accuracy of seasonal temperature estimates could improve our ability to explain
the patchy distribution of many species.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
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Keywords: | Vegetation Wind Coastal Continentality Mountain Moisture GAM Rainforest Eucalyptus Illawarra Escarpment |
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