济宁市系统动力学需水预测模型研究

系统动力学以反馈控制理论为基础,处理高阶次、非线性、多重反馈、复杂时变的系统问题,广泛应用于水资源、城市水环境规划中。科学合理的需水预测是规划社会经济建设规模和发展速度的重要依据。针对济宁市水资源和社会经济现状与发展要求,以实现水资源供需平衡为目标,建立需水量预测系统动力学模型,通过变量调控、方案设计及节水效果评估,为节水管理提供决策信息。研究表明,建立的模型是有效的,可以全面客观地使济宁市社会经济发展获得良好的可持续性。

An Approach to the Water Demand Forecasting of Jining City from the Perspective of System Dynamics

Based on the theory of feedback control,system dynamics mainly deals with higher-order,nonlinear,multiple feedback,time-varying complex system problems.It is widely used in water resources and urban water environmental planning.Scientific and rational water demand forecasting is an important basis for planning socio-economic development scale and speed.Based on the status and development requirements for water resources and social economy,and aims at keeping a balance between water supply and demand,this paper establishes a system dynamics model for water demand forecast.Through variable control,program design and assessment of water-saving,provides us with some decision-making information for water management.Studies show that,the model established is valid and can get good sustainability fully and objectively in social and economic development of Jining City.