Risk factors and spatial distribution of urban rat infestations

Urban rat infestations have multifactorial causes and may result in severe public health and environmental problems, as well as heavy economic losses. The identification of putative environmental determinants of urban rat infestations and the mapping of areas prone to experiencing such infestations (hot spots) are crucial for effectively addressing intervention efforts. We investigated the associations between a selection of environmental factors and the occurrence of rat infestations in the city of Madrid, Spain. This was done by modelling 10,956 citizen-reported rat sightings from 2002 to 2008 using generalized additive models, both at municipality (Madrid) and district (Latina) levels. Increased age and density of housing, and decreased distance to vegetated areas, markets and cat feeding stations were factors associated with an increased risk of rat infestations. Risk maps for rat infestations were also developed and recurrent hot spots of rat activity were identified. Although a better fit to the data was obtained in the model for the smaller scale and possibly more environmentally homogenous study area of Latina, modelling the spatial distribution of rat sightings was useful for identifying factors associated with an increased risk of urban rat infestations, as well as for identifying hot spots of rat activity, providing local authorities with a practical tool for effectively targeting intervention efforts to high-risk situations based on the local environmental contexts.